A conversation held in meeting and board rooms around the world over the last ten years:

• Why don’t our models work?
  ~ Many reasons really.
• What is the most predominate?
  ~ Confirmation Bias.
• What does that mean?
  ~ We distort the results of our tests to confirm what we want to believe. Thus, over time, the models become distorted beyond any sense of reason.
• Is there anyway to stop it?
  ~ Unfortunately,.. no.
• Why not?
  ~ The Dunning-Kruger Effect.
• What is that?
  ~ People convince themselves they are smarter than they really are. A condition that gets worse the longer a person stays in the education system.
• Well then,.. How do we explain that the models we’ve been using don’t work, in a way that preserves our authority?
  ~ We don’t… we pretend that they do work and accuse anyone who says otherwise of being conspiracy theorists listening to fake news.
• Oh… OK… so, business as usual.